At the beginning of January, we released projections for the Masternode Ecosystem Market Capitalization. These projects ran through the end of January. As that time has now come and gone, it’s time to assess the quality of the projections.

  1. Linear Model - The linear model was too pessimistic about the performance of the Masternode ecosystem during January. Even the upper bound provided by the model slightly under-estimated the final January Marketcap.
  2. ARIMA - The ARIMA’s mean prediction matched the actual performance of the ecosystem extremely well, correctly forecasting a roughly flat-lined trend for the month.
  3. Brownian Motion - This model performed similarly to ARIMA, with a mean forecast predicting a mostly static month of January that matched the actual performance well.
  4. Prophet - The Prophet model forecasted a slight downturn for the ecosystem, and the ecosystem performed a bit better than the model’s average projection was suggesting. With that said, the actual results were well within the error bounds provided.

Overall, both ARIMA and Brownian Motion performed best this month, and the Linear Model performed the worst.

So how is February looking for the Masternode ecosystem? It turns out, the models are mostly sticking to their guns. The linear model is suggesting a downward trend of approximately the same magnitude that it forecasted in January. The ARIMA and Brownian Motion models see a continuation of the roughly flat-lined performance that has been seen over the last few months. The prophet model sees a downturn coming in the month of February. With that said, many of the bounds have narrowed, suggesting the projections are getting more confident with more data and the reduced volatiity in the overall market. For example, the Upper Bound for the Brownian Motion model is now about $200,000,000 lower than it was for the month of January.

We’ll be back in March to see how these forecasts held up.